But as we learned in 2016 (and in 2000!), All that really matters is Electoral College.
Last week, two major political figures – Amy Walter in the Cook Policy Report and Nate Silver in 538 – released an updated look at the election map. And the picture they paint of Trump is terrible.
“In order to win the Election College, Biden will have to win just 26 percent of these Toss Up states, while Trump will have to win more than 75 percent of them. In other words, Trump has little margin for mistakes, while Biden has a wider path to victory. “
Silver’s analysis is similar.
But what are they? is The saying is that at the moment the ballot is in favor of Biden. Not only are the traditional democratic states that Trump won in 2016 such as Michigan and Pennsylvania likely to return to the Democratic column in 2020, but also former Republican fortresses such as Arizona, North Carolina and perhaps even Texas appear to be they really play for Biden.
All this gives the supposed Democratic candidate, as Walter rightly points out, more paths to the 270 electoral votes that the 46th president should have.
Paths I am doing it still exists for Trump – mainly by holding two of the three states of Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) and maintaining the status quo elsewhere on the map.
But there are far fewer paths for Trump than for Biden. And with each passing week slowing, the number of good election cards for Trump continues to shrink.
The point: The best news for Trump is that Election Day is still a long way off. If the election were held today, it would lose convincingly – in the popular vote and in the Electoral College.