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The election map continues to worsen for Trump

But as we learned in 2016 (and in 2000!), All that really matters is Electoral College.

Unfortunately for Trump, his chances of getting the 270 electoral votes needed to win a second term seem, at the very least, quite low.

Last week, two major political figures – Amy Walter in the Cook Policy Report and Nate Silver in 538 – released an updated look at the election map. And the picture they paint of Trump is terrible.

“With less than five months to go before the election, President Trump is a serious underdog for re-election,” he said. Walter writes, which puts 248 constituencies firmly or leaning on Biden and 204 steadily or leaning on Trump.

“In order to win the Election College, Biden will have to win just 26 percent of these Toss Up states, while Trump will have to win more than 75 percent of them. In other words, Trump has little margin for mistakes, while Biden has a wider path to victory. “

Silver’s analysis is similar.

“Overall – assuming that non-voting states follow the same pattern as in 2016 – Biden leads states with 368 votes, while Trump leads states with a total of 170 votes.” he writes.
To be clearNeither Walter nor Silver (nor I) say the election is over or that Trump can’t win. In fact, while Silver suggests there is a possibility Biden could win in “landslide” if all the current folding states go to him, “that’s a Trump Electoral College victory, depending on how the race moves from now until November.”

But what are they? is The saying is that at the moment the ballot is in favor of Biden. Not only are the traditional democratic states that Trump won in 2016 such as Michigan and Pennsylvania likely to return to the Democratic column in 2020, but also former Republican fortresses such as Arizona, North Carolina and perhaps even Texas appear to be they really play for Biden.

All this gives the supposed Democratic candidate, as Walter rightly points out, more paths to the 270 electoral votes that the 46th president should have.

Paths I am doing it still exists for Trump – mainly by holding two of the three states of Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) and maintaining the status quo elsewhere on the map.

But there are far fewer paths for Trump than for Biden. And with each passing week slowing, the number of good election cards for Trump continues to shrink.

The point: The best news for Trump is that Election Day is still a long way off. If the election were held today, it would lose convincingly – in the popular vote and in the Electoral College.

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