Republicans are narrowing the gap in the first elections in these states

Republicans are narrowing the gap in the first elections in these states

More than 12 million votes have been cast in these four states, which could be crucial in determining the next president.

Candidate programs reflect a focus on these states. President Donald Trump and ex Vice President Joe Biden They both ran in Florida on Thursday for the state election of 29 voters. Later, Trump will travel to North Carolina, while Vice President Mike Pence was scheduled for campaign stops in Iowa and Nevada. Biden is expected in Iowa on Friday.

With five days until November 3, here’s a deeper look at who has already voted in these key states, with data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democratic, academic and nonprofit advocacy organizations. issues

Trump beat Florida by just over a percentage point last year.

Last week, voters under the age of 30 slightly increased their share of the Florida electorate from 8% to 10%. Other age groups have also seen small increases, further reducing the dominance of Florida’s elderly voters aged 65 and over, who made up 45% of the first voters a week ago but now make up only 39%.

The electorate of the former Florida voting is slightly different than it is now four years ago. The share of Spanish voters in pre-election voting has risen from 14% four years ago to 16% now, and the share of Black voters has risen slightly from 12% to 13% now. Voting by white voters has dropped by three points from this point in 2016.

Republicans are narrowing the gap in the election vote. Democrats are four points ahead today. A week ago, it was nine points. The party’s advantage is unpredictable for the outcome – but nationally, opinion polls show that many Republicans prefer to vote in person on Election Day rather than early.

North Carolina

Trump won the Tar Heel State by more than three percentage points in 2016.

Young people continue to vote in large numbers in North Carolina. Last week, voters under the age of 30 made up about 11% of the first voters, but now it has risen slightly over 12%.

Democrats have lost the lead in the election vote Last week, they had a 12-point advantage over Republicans on the ballot. Currently, it amounts to eight points.

By race, white voters represent the majority of voters who have already voted in North Carolina at 72%, followed by Black voters with the second largest share of those votes at 22%. This remains almost identical to the racial composition of the electorate four years ago.

Iowa

Iowa remains a competitive battleground this round after Trump won the Hawkeye State by more than nine percentage points in 2016. The state also has a key Senate battle between incumbent Republican Joni Ernst and Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield.

Democrats continue to vote at a much higher rate than Republicans, similar to 2016. In 49% of the vote, Democrats have a 17-point lead over Republicans, which stands at 32%. However, Republicans have narrowed this gap slightly by four points over the past week.

During the race, Iowa’s current electorate is similar to this point in 2016, with white voters making up the vast majority of first-time voters at 94%.

Iowa has not seen as much change in age distribution as other states. Voters under 30 make up 10% of all first-time voters – just three points from this period four years ago. Voters 30-64 are five points from 42% of turnout at this point four years ago to 47% now. Voters aged 65 and over make up a smaller percentage of the first voters than at this point four years ago.

Nevada

Nevada had a small margin of defeat for Trump four years ago, with about two percentage points separating him from Hillary Clinton.

The Nevada Early Voting Electorate has a younger trend than last week. Eleven percent of voters so far are under the age of 30. last week it was only 9%. Voters aged 65 and over have gone from 40% of first-time voters last week to 35% now.

About two-thirds of Nevada’s electorate comes from white voters, a slight drop from 70% four years ago. Hispanic voters accounted for the second largest share of these votes at 13%, slightly higher than in 2016. Black voters and Asian voters also saw a one percentage point increase in their share of early voting.

Republicans limit Democratic advantage to pre-election voting. Last week, Democrats outscored Republicans by 12 points. With more ballots returned to the postal voting status, 42% of Democrat voters are now only seven points higher than 35% of Republicans.

CORRECTION: This story has been updated to reflect Trump’s 2016 defeat in Nevada.

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