The University of Washington has expanded its coverage of how many people are likely to die from corona in the United States by November 1, predicting at least 208,255 deaths so far, based on the current scenario.
But if 95% of the population wears a public mask, that number will drop to about 162,808, the university’s Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME) said on Tuesday.
Last week, the IHME predicted about 175,168 total deaths by October 1, based on the current scenario. But if almost everyone wears a face mask, that number will drop to over 150,000.
How does modeling work: The current model includes provisions that require the re-imposition of strong social distance commands when deaths per day reach eight to one million people, combined with the widespread adoption of a mask, in the face of an approach that does not take precautionary measures. For example, strong social distance measures in Florida could reduce the 6,173 deaths there by October 1st.
The model continues to predict a serious increase in deaths and cases starting in mid to late September and October. Views could change if there is another increase in infections among populations at risk. Currently, states report an increasing number of cases in younger people who are at lower risk of death, the IHME said.
Some context: So far, according to Johns Hopkins University, more than 2.96 million Americans have been diagnosed with coronavirus infections and at least 130,902 have died.