The other well-known fact is that US policy has been at some of the most polarized levels in history during Trump’s presidency, which means that most of the red against the blue map is likely to remain unchanged from four years ago ( or even 20 years ago).
However, we thought that now was a good time to publish a basic electoral map of the game situation on which all these big unknowns will play and change as the months between now and the elections begin.
As has become the norm in US presidential policy, the struggle for 270 electoral votes is almost certain to end in a handful of states on the battlefield. Well, don’t let all these national polls show a big advantage for Joe Biden to blur your vision too much. Yes, at this point in time, it is clear that Biden has the advantage in both national and many major warring states. But the idea that the race ended in June seems a bit illegal. It has been more than 30 years since a winning presidential candidate won more than 400 votes, so it is difficult to win a presidential election.
Trump’s war is one of the clearest structural advantages he has today in the fight. The Trump campaign closed in April with almost double the Biden campaign. The former vice president is working to fill this gap as he tries to unify all corners of the party after a competitive first season that ended in March. With a clear message, the Trump campaign is currently playing more defense than attack. It is rapidly increasing its advertising spending in what is expected to be the most controversial states in the war, instead of focusing on increasing its resources to expand competition. The Biden campaign hopes to take advantage of its current dynamics by expanding the map and creating multiple paths to 270 electoral votes, while making Trump defend some states that have been credibly red in the last few cycles.
The unknown is quite clear at this point as well.
What will be the ongoing impact of the corona pandemic this fall when voters train their minds about the choices they have before them for the presidency? Will the country be in the midst of reviving a spreading virus? Will the economic downturn from the end of spring be limited by the downturn? Will there be a recovery in the way most Americans can experience? Will it be the country’s assessment of Trump’s performance in handling the crisis and the economic consequences as it is now? Will Biden be considered an acceptable alternative for Americans who are unhappy with the current course of the country? Will the method by which they will be voted on and measured be dramatically different than ever for many voters? And will the revived racial justice movement in America, as evidenced by protests across the country after the death of George Floyd, turn into a wave of voters in November?
Presidential re-election campaigns have traditionally served as a referendum on the institution. As a candidate and President, Trump has consistently upset political rules and regulations. He will have to find a way to defy this historic precedent and turn the competition into a choice – he did more of a challenge given Biden’s tenure in public life, including eight years as vice president.
This raises another unknown. Is the window closed for the president and his team to have a clear dominance over Biden’s definition in a negative light for voters? The plan was to follow in the footsteps of George W. Bush and Barack Obama’s re-election campaigns and do so immediately after the first season, when Biden had low cash and was not yet fully equipped to fight for an election campaign. This time has certainly passed, but the question remains whether Trump’s team will be able to limit all the events that have prevailed in the public consciousness and simply lead the news cycle every day with a negative narrative framed around Biden. The President and his campaign have already been scrutinizing many possible avenues to follow, but how these attacks are still far from clear.
This map is not intended to be predictable for what it will look like in November. It is an opening moment based on talks with Democrats and Republicans across the country, campaign assistants and officials on how everyone sees the current landscape. And, finally, all the components of modern campaigns will play a role in the way it will be shaped, including polls, candidate visits, television and digital advertising markets, and the strength of local campaign organizations.
Its goal is to reflect where the battle for 270 electoral votes is likely to take place.
Trump begins with a steady base of 125 ballots from 20 states that are unlikely to be challenged in the fall. When you combine this steady state of affairs with the additional 80 electoral votes that are currently incumbent, Trump’s total leads to 205 electoral votes – 65 votes away from re-election.
Biden is launching his general election with a steady base of 190 electoral votes from 15 states and the District of Columbia. When you add the 42 electoral votes that are leaning in his direction, he brings his total to 232 electoral votes – just 38 away from the presidency victory.
That leaves us with six states with a total of 101 electoral votes that are likely to be decisive in choosing the direction of the country for the next four years: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
There will be a lot for people to discuss here. There are those who argue that Michigan has already shifted to the Democrats and there are those who believe that New Hampshire and Nevada are real upheavals or that North Carolina may not be in real danger of losing the President.
All of this can be true. And this map will be dynamic and change as the campaign unfolds and the candidates make their difficult choices about where their time and resources are spent and where they are wasted.
In the coming months, the states will move from lean to battle and back, but this original snapshot is the best sense of where campaigns believe the battle will be more dedicated and where most of it will be. on both sides to influence voters on their candidate.
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Aidacho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3) (125 in total)
Georgia (16), Iowa (6), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), Ohio (18), Texas (38) (80 total)
Arizona (11), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10) (101 total)
Democrat is leaning:
Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Virginia (13) (42 total)
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14) , New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12) (190 total)