Trump has endured one of the most devastating political upheavals of any modern leader and seems to lack a coherent plan to repair the leaking ship, let alone the triumph of multiple crises that shake an increasingly unhappy nation.
Less than five months before Election Day, with the nation struggling with simultaneous crises, every conventional political indicator flashes red for Trump. But any conventional political indicator has always been red for Trump – and he has never been defeated.
Because analysts will not delete Trump
If Trump loses in November, those last few weeks may be reminiscent of the time when Trump’s train finally finally hit the rails. However, among Democrats and those who do not support the President, fears that he will run for a second term are obvious anyway. The man who said he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue, shoot someone and escape from it, created a supernatural political aura exactly five years after descending his golden escalator to Trump Tower and turning American politics around.
The hidden tectonics of racial awakening after the death of George Floyd may well change the conventional politics of race. But the country’s main White, conservative half of which is more prone to Trump’s blows to the knee in the NFL, is demanding respect for the flag and “law and order,” and has warned that the United States will have to keep its legacy down. , “has not necessarily spoken yet.
Trump is an opposition politician. His initial election was a reaction to the cultural, racial and political change that many Americans saw in Obama’s presidency. The recent defeats of the Supreme Court could give the evangelical section of its core motivation for one last, decisive battle to create a general conservative majority in a second term of Trump. If there is one president who can exploit a political war with demagogy to save his own political skin, it would be the established one.
Similarly, Trump’s refusal to model wearing a mask in pandemic, his huge racial errors, and the proven inability of half his heart to fight the worst public health crisis in a century are often misunderstood by his supporters as catastrophic. which its critics in Washington and the media – which operate by fact-based analysis – perceive them. Indeed, Trump’s most brutal behavior often served as a validation for voters who sent him to Washington to destroy the status quo.
Trump, in his aggressive attacks on Biden who have not been physically and mentally fit for a long time, also clearly feels that he has an opening against a candidate without a record of success in presidential race – other than his shocking victory in the nomination race. of the Democrats. Meanwhile, a terrifying media outlet ensures that the events of the pandemic and the most peaceful protests since Floyd’s death never reach Trump voters.
And there is also no doubt – as his indisputable behavior in Ukraine has shown – that the President will use every government power at his disposal – and many that are not – to move the election in his favor.
Because Trump has to carry out his rally in the middle of a pandemic
Those who support Trump’s second term may want to avoid a copy of his interview with the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday night. The summit was a combination of alternatives, denials and irrational statements about the virus and seemed to confirm Bolton’s accusations that the President was unfit for the post he served. No tangible electoral strategy was obvious other than the wildly optimistic predictions that the economy, powered by pandemic, would soon be better than ever.
From the beginning, Trump rejected the virus approach because it was politically uncomfortable. Now it is doing just that, as cases in many states with record levels of new infections are on the rise again, failing to properly manage the opening up of the economy and preparing a country for a reduced lifestyle until vaccines or treatments can. to be found.
“It’s fading. It’s going to fade,” Trump told Sean Hunty on Fox News on Wednesday, giving a false impression as 10 states set a record number of new cases this week. In Florida, one of the states that enthusiastically followed Trump’s push to reopen, experts warn of a possible “catastrophic” virus outbreak. Pandemic graphs in most countries show a sharp rise and then a more gradual path under the mountain. The US chart shows a climb to the mountain, then a kind of alpine ridge as the cases decreased a bit, then a plateau and then they started to rise again.
However, Trump, who, according to CNN reports, has begun to question the authenticity of the coronavirus data, is trying to sell a hypothesis that the peak in infections is due to more tests – an absurd argument, as more tests must be allow the health authorities to isolate and locate cases and ultimately eliminate new cases.
“Personally, I think the tests are too much, even though I created the largest test machine in history,” Trump told the Wall Street Journal. Every reliable public health expert says testing, detection and isolation are the keys to fighting a pandemic. Such experts also say that using a mask – a step that Trump refuses to approve or take publicly – is another vital step in controlling the transmission of the disease. California, for example, issued a state-level order Thursday requiring face cover.
“The mask is a double-edged sword and I see it. People come in, talk through the mask for hours. They probably won’t clean them afterwards, you know, they get a little indistinguishable, right?” Trump told the magazine in comments that are typical of an approach based on presumptions about the virus that drives science crazy.
In the wake of the disappointing news about the corona, which suggests that the United States is many months away from victory, the decision to go ahead with the Oklahoma rally looks like madness.
But the need for the President to have a moral, televised show of support that suggests his political base is ready for battle in November – even in the midst of extreme conditions – may be the strongest message, however, that the camp Trump is concerned about his prospects for a second term and believes a resumption is needed.