Donald Trump is historically strong with his base, and that's his problem

Donald Trump is historically strong with his base, and that’s his problem

Both polls show Trump leading the way among self-appointed Republicans: 93% to 5% in Monmouth and 92% to 4% (NBC News / Wall Street Journal).

What is the point: Trump has made a clear statement during his presidency to satisfy the Republican base, and the poll shows that this effort is clearly working. Its base does not leave him, even as his total numbers remain weak.

Trump’s problem is that he has almost utilized this reservoir of support.

See Trump and Biden elections
After you make one great effort To win the qualifying round against basically no competition, Trump wins just under 95% of the primary primary votes overall. This is very similar to the vote in the general election, which puts him just under 95% of the vote. It will be difficult for him to overcome this.
Indeed, Trump has more support among Republican voters than any other Republican since at least 2000. You can see it at ABC News / Washington Post poll. Like Monmouth and the NBC / Wall Street Journal, Trump has almost 95% (94%), while Biden has only 4%.

Since 2000, no Republican has ever had more than 91% of Republicans support him at this point in the ABC News / Washington Post poll. The average Republican had 84% of Republicans behind him. A key strategy in this election made much more sense than one under Trump.

(The historical character of these numbers applies if we include independents who incline Republicans.)

Maybe Trump thinks he doesn’t need to change his strategies because he ignored most people’s advice and still won in 2016. That’s wrong. Apart from the fact that there are good indications that Trump ran much more than a mediocre one In terms of governance, Trump had much more room to grow on the basis of 2016. He scored only 74% of the self-appointed Republicans in an ABC News / Washington Poll that got just that point – the lowest of any Republican by 2000.

Where Trump is weak, he is outside the Republican base. At the ABC / Washington Post (the numbers are similar to Monmouth and the NBC News / Wall Street Journal), Trump is 39% independent and 3% Democrat. Both are lower than any Republican at this point in the 2000 ABC News / Washington Post poll.

In other words, there is much more likely support for Trump outside the basic Democratic base. Trump, however, does not seem interested in making the effort.

If Trump does not change things, he may find that the basis of the other side is greater than his own. Biden wins Democrats share in average live polls (including one NPR / PBS News Hour / Marist College Survey) this week (94%) than Trump wins Republicans (92%). The average poll, as it is for almost every year, records more Democrats than Republicans in that country.

Continuing his basic strategy, Trump ensures that he will not see the bottom fall. However, he will find it very difficult to build the coalition needed to win.

This story has been updated to include results from a NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll on Sunday.

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