Polls, which ended with rallies two weeks before Election Day, find significant minorities of voters saying they have already voted, with those voters breaking for Biden in both states. Those who have not yet voted, however, break in favor of Trump, but not as much margin as Biden among those who have voted now.
In Florida, which has 29 votes and is a critical battleground in the presidential race, 50 percent of potential voters say they support Biden, 46 percent support Trump. The difference between the two is precisely in the margin of sampling error of the poll, which means that there is no clear leader in the survey.
The results of Pennsylvania show that Biden is well ahead of the state, which holds 20 electoral votes, with 53% of potential voters behind him and 43% supporting Trump.
In both surveys, Biden has a double-digit advantage over Trump as the most credible to handle the coronavirus outbreak (54% Biden to 42% Trump in Pennsylvania and 53% Biden to 43% Trump in Florida), and the same addressing racial inequality in the US (58% Biden to 39% Trump in Pennsylvania and 54% Biden to 42% Trump in Florida). In both states, he also has little advantage over Trump in running for the Supreme Court (51% to 45% in Pennsylvania, 50% to 46% in Florida). Biden is more often seen as a candidate to unite the country rather than divide it (56% Biden to 39% Trump in Florida and 58% Biden to 35% Trump in Pennsylvania) and more interested in people like you (55% Biden at 42% Trump in Pennsylvania and 52% Biden at 43% Trump in Florida).
In Pennsylvania, Biden’s advantage also includes an advantage in having a clear plan for solving the country’s problems (50% Biden to 42% Trump) and keeping Americans safe from harm (51% Biden to 46% Trump) .
In Florida, the margin of these two measurements is much stricter, with 49% saying Biden has a clear plan to solve the country’s problems compared to 45% that Trump says and 49% that Biden will keep Americans safe from damage at 47% saying Trump will do it.
Trump holds the lead over Biden as the most credible in the Florida economy, with 51% saying they prefer Trump to 46% of Biden. In Pennsylvania, however, the two are almost even on this question, 50% say they trust Trump more, 48% Biden.
The new polls are in line with other high-quality polls in the two states in recent days. In Florida, CNN polls average Biden with 49% in the state and Trump with 44%. The current average high-quality vote in Pennsylvania also shows a Biden lead, with an average of 52% behind the former vice president and 43% in support of the current president.
Among those who have already voted in both states, Biden has a big advantage, but Trump leads among those who have not yet voted in both states. In Pennsylvania, where election voting was not a major factor in previous elections, Biden leads by 88% to 10% among about a quarter of potential voters who have already voted. But among those who have not yet voted, 54% supported Trump, 42% Biden.
There is also a sharp difference between these two groups in Florida, where the majority of voters who voted in the 2008 presidential election came from the pre-election vote. About 35% of potential voters say they have already voted there, and with this group, 71% say they support Biden, 27% support Trump. Those who have not yet cast a ballot for Trump, 56% to 40%.
Surveys also show that voting enthusiasm is higher among Trump supporters than among Biden supporters in both states. In Florida, 58% of potential Trump voters say they are extremely enthusiastic to vote this year, compared to 49% of Biden voters. In Pennsylvania, the gap is smaller, with 61% of Trump voters saying they are extremely enthusiastic about the vote compared to 56% among Biden voters.
Biden holds the lead in both states among women voters of color and voters aged 65 and over. The men split evenly in Pennsylvania, but broke up for Trump in Florida. Voters under the age of 35 stand firm for Biden in both states, but voters between the ages of 35 and 49 in Pennsylvania lean toward Biden while leaning toward Trump in Florida.
In Pennsylvania, there is a huge gap between white voters with education, with white voters with four-year college degrees supporting Biden against Trump by a margin of 63% to 35%, while those without a degree favoring Trump by 59%. % to 35% margin. This gap is smaller in Florida, where white college voters were evenly distributed, 49% behind each candidate.
In Florida, white voters generally outnumber Trump, while Biden has a narrower lead over colored voters than in Pennsylvania (66% Biden to 30% Trump in Florida compared to 83% Biden to 13% Trump) . In Florida, the poll suggests that Biden has a lower return than Hillary Clinton in 2016 who appears in the state among Latino voters, with 52% supporting Biden and 45% Trump (Clinton won 62% of this group, according to by voting there)
The President’s approval rating among potential voters reflects his overall support for the presidential race. In Pennsylvania, 44% approve of Trump’s presidency. which amounts to 45% in Florida.
CNN polls in Florida and Pennsylvania were conducted by telephone from October 15 to October 20 among random adult samples in both states. In Florida, 1,002 adults were interviewed, including 847 potential voters. In Pennsylvania, 1,015 adults were interviewed, including 843 potential voters. Results among potential voters in both states have a sampling margin of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. It is higher among the subgroups.