Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden holds close steps towards the President Donald Trump in six states the president intends to defend himself on Tuesday in his bid for a second term, according to a new CNBC / Change Research poll.
The poll, released Monday, found the former vice president with at least a slim lead in all of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which Trump won in 2016. shows an impressive distance race the president at most of these electoral college awards.
- All six swing modes: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
- Arizona: Biden 50%, Trump 47%
- Florida: Biden 51%, Trump 48%
- Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 44%
- North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
- Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
- Wisconsin: Biden 53%, Trump 45%
A separate CNBC / Change Research national poll shows Biden leading Trump by 52% to 42%.
The poll conducted a survey of 3,328 people from Thursday to Sunday and has a margin of error plus or minus 1.7 percentage points. The national poll, taken over the same time frame, has a sample size of 1,880 potential voters with a margin of error plus or minus 2.26 percentage points.
Polls in the final before Election Day show a clear but by no means insurmountable advantage for Biden in the race for the White House. As contests in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania show up, Trump has more ground to cover Michigan and Wisconsin, two big blue states that helped push him to the White House in 2016.
It is unclear how much delayed changes in voter sentiment will change the presidential race this year. In elections where American votes early or by post in staggering numbers, 68% of respondents in both national and national polls said they had already voted.
In Arizona, 85% of respondents said they had already voted, while 82% and 81% of potential voters in Florida and North Carolina, respectively, said the same. Meanwhile, 63% and 57% of Wisconsin and Michigan voters, respectively, said they had voted. In Pennsylvania – which can take days to count votes by mail – only 40% of those polled said they had voted.
Meanwhile, the polling poll shows Democrats leading close battles for three key Senate seats. The party that wins all the elections in Arizona, Michigan and North Carolina will go a long way in gaining control of the Senate. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.
In the special election in Arizona, the former astronaut of the Democrats, Mark Kelly, leads the Republican senator, Martha Maxali with a margin of 51% to 47%. Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters has a 51% to 46% lead over GOP Army veteran and businessman John James
In North Carolina, former Democratic Sen. Cal Cunningham leads Republican Sen. Thom Tillis with a 50% to 46% margin. CNBC / Change Research polls have found a steady but small lead for Cunningham throughout the race, even after the Democratic’s affair with a woman who is not his wife has been confirmed.
Polls suggest Trump’s performance during his first term, particularly in handling the Koran virus pandemic that led to more than 230,000 American deaths, prevented him in key states. In the six states, 46% of potential voters said they approved of Trump handling the virus, compared with 54% who rejected it.
Nationwide, only 41% of respondents said they approved of the president ‘s handling of the epidemic, compared with 59% who disagreed.
At the same time, 53% of combat state voters said they preferred Biden and Democrats to handle the Koran, compared with 47% who chose Trump and Republicans. Nationwide, 58% said they would choose Biden and his party to manage the outbreak, while 42% chose the president and his party.
Trump got better marks for the economy: 51% of those polled in the swing states and 46% nationwide said they approved of the way he handled the issue.
The economy and the coronavirus seemed to be the key issues for those polled in the last round before Election Day, when voters were asked to report on the three most important issues facing the country.
In the swing-state survey, 48% chose the economy, jobs and cost of living, while 41% chose Covid-19. The next biggest concern was political corruption, which was chosen by 34% of voters.
Nationwide, 44% of voters chose Covid-19, followed by the economy, jobs and cost of living at 43% and political corruption at 31%.
Biden’s lead signal has to do with the current White House resident. More than half, or 54%, of Biden voters said they voted against Trump, while 46% voted overwhelmingly for the former vice president.
Motivation varies among Trump supporters. More than eight in 10, or 84%, said they voted overwhelmingly for Trump, while 16% said they voted against Biden.
– Graphics by Nate Rattner of CNBC