(Sidebar: Mitt Romney in 2012 was the only Republican presidential candidate to win in the suburbs – 50% to 48% against Barack Obama – and lost the election).
This correlation should concern not only Trump but also any Republicans in the vote at this time.
Why; Because the revolt against Trump in the suburbs, which was at the center of the Democrats’ recovery of the majority of the House in mid-2018, does not seem to show any signs of slowing down.
“What Really Should Really Scare the Rs Voting: Trump Follows Biden 7-9% More Than He Lost the Popular Vote in 2016, But Because There Are So Many Urban Core Where Trump Had Little Opportunity to Fall First , the Fall is probably even greater in swing suburban areas. “
And because Trump did it all while hitting urban areas – Clinton beat him there by 26 points in 2016 – Wasserman’s claim (and he’s right) is that Trump’s further fall in the run-up to the general election against Biden is almost certainly the result of losses in suburban areas.
Trump’s collapse in the suburbs – losing them by 5 points or more – would not only cost him the White House. It would also endanger Republicans in a suburban neighborhood or a Senate seat in a state with a large suburban population.
The point: Lose suburbs and Trump loses the election. It is so simple.