axelrod tsr 7/6/2020 vpx

Because this region can seal Trump’s fate in 2020

Since 1972, each elected GOP president has won the polls in the suburbs. according to the exit ballot. These are Richard Nixon in 1972, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984, George H.W. Bush in 1988, George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 and, yes, Donald Trump in 2016. (Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 49% to 45% among suburban voters).

(Sidebar: Mitt Romney in 2012 was the only Republican presidential candidate to win in the suburbs – 50% to 48% against Barack Obama – and lost the election).

This correlation should concern not only Trump but also any Republicans in the vote at this time.

Why; Because the revolt against Trump in the suburbs, which was at the center of the Democrats’ recovery of the majority of the House in mid-2018, does not seem to show any signs of slowing down.

David Wasserman’s tweet, the author of the House in the Political Report Cook, a party of the parties to the impartiality:

“What Really Should Really Scare the Rs Voting: Trump Follows Biden 7-9% More Than He Lost the Popular Vote in 2016, But Because There Are So Many Urban Core Where Trump Had Little Opportunity to Fall First , the Fall is probably even greater in swing suburban areas. “

What Wasserman means – according to the people – is this: Trump is behind Joe Biden somewhere in the neighborhood with 10 to 12 points in most national elections. That’s far more than the 3-point loss of Hillary Clinton’s popular vote – even winning Electoral College (and the White House) in 2016.

And because Trump did it all while hitting urban areas – Clinton beat him there by 26 points in 2016 – Wasserman’s claim (and he’s right) is that Trump’s further fall in the run-up to the general election against Biden is almost certainly the result of losses in suburban areas.

Trump’s collapse in the suburbs – losing them by 5 points or more – would not only cost him the White House. It would also endanger Republicans in a suburban neighborhood or a Senate seat in a state with a large suburban population.

The point: Lose suburbs and Trump loses the election. It is so simple.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *