Welcome to the weekly analysis of the status of the 2020 campaign.
The week in numbers
Good news for President Trump, The The Cook Political Report made two changes to its election forecast, moving Florida from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up” and Nevada from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat”. Trump advisers see Florida in particular as a must-win The changes reflect Biden’s possible weakness with Latin voters, and Trump poll numbers are stabilizing after months of protests following the assassination of George Floyd.
The Biden campaign continues to dominate the airwaves, spending $ 32 million on the TV show last week, while the Trump campaign passed approximately $ 10 million. Spending is almost uniform on Facebook as the Biden campaign passes $ 3.7 million last week, while Trump’s team passed $ 3.2 million on the platform.
ONE Monmouth University poll released this week showed that Biden owns one seven point lead beyond Trump among potential voters nationwide. Among all registered voters, exactly 37 percent He said they were confident they would vote for Trump 43 percent who were sure they would vote for Biden.
But one Research NBC News / Marist College of Florida offered some rare positive news for the president on the electoral front: He and Biden were tied at 48 percent each of the potential voters in the state, with Trump backed by 50 percent of Latin voters (although a particularly difficult demographic poll to be exact).
For the president, the week began with himself defending a report in the Atlantic and ended up defending himself against a report by veteran journalist Bob Woodward.
Both stories – one about his alleged respect for the military, the other about the deliberate degradation of the corona virus – threatened to undermine his support for the voters he relies on, especially staff and elderly. Mr. Trump himself was once again history, less than 55 days away from the election – a time when said veteran political strategists the person in whom the fight is a referendum is often the person who loses.
Mr. Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate and former vice president, tried to capitalize on the negative news during an appearance in Michigan, where he accused the president of handling the pandemic for the ongoing recession. Instead, Mr. Trump, also in Michigan, sought to send a message of a major American comeback, complete with the resurgence of Trump’s old school meetings he now regularly holds in airport hangars in combat states.
Nothing sticks to this president, but with just a few weeks before Election Day, every negative news cycle counts a little more. See how this played out.
For Mr. Woodward’s first book on the Trump presidency, Mr. Trump did not participate in the project and (are you sitting?) There was no plan by the White House communications department in 2018 to try to shape the narrative. This left senior officials free, in an effort to maintain their reputation, and others spoke to Mr Woodward simply out of fear that they would be the only ones who did not.
For Mr. Woodward’s second book, Mr. Trump seems to have over-corrected, this time participating in 18 freestyle sessions with the author. “I gave him some time,” Trump told Sean Hannity, the host of Fox News, earlier this week. “But, as usual, with the books he writes, it may not have worked very well, maybe.” Why did he do it?
Mr. Trump believes he can charm anyone. His desire to talk to Mr. Woodward for a long time underscores the reality of Mr. Trump’s relationship with the media, despite cries of “fake news.” Mr. Trump loves to talk to journalists – especially celebrities – and is driven, in large part, by his desire to gain positive coverage from the foundation.
But he may have been the one who was fascinated, from Mr. Woodward’s condition (even if he has not read his books).
And he does not seem to care. Unlike other authors who have written endless Trump White House accounts, Mr. Woodward has not yet received the book before the sales that usually come when the president denounces an author and their work on Twitter. Mr. Trump seems to be giving up on the fact that he played, perhaps because most of the destructive content seems to come directly from the president’s mouth. Instead of denouncing Woodward, Trump is defending himself.
How Biden’s campaign responds to Trump scandals
In recent weeks, Mr. Biden has faced a challenge known to Hillary Clinton – how to arm the Trump scandals. New revelations about the president’s behavior have dominated the headlines and chyrons of cable news, including his defamatory comments about army members mentioned in the Atlantic, as well as the book by Mr. Woodward and another by Michael Cohen, a former personal lawyer and trustee of Mr. Trump. .
But making these stories last is difficult and breaking voters is even harder. See how Mr. Biden tries:
Shipping Substitutes, No Candidate: Following the release of The Atlantic and the highlights of Woodward’s book, Mr. Biden’s campaign held a teleconference with high-profile deputies, including Senators Tammy Duckworth of Illinois and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. In this way, the campaign tried to prolong a cycle of news about the destruction of information to his opponent. Biden’s advisers have also been pursuing an effort since Mr. Biden became the candidate: While his main campaign focused on Mr. Trump and the electorate, his general election strategy has often left the president in a difficult position. others.
Focus on the virus: When Mr. Biden targets Mr. Trump, he has usually been on issues with which he feels most comfortable. He tried to make this election a referendum on how Mr. Trump handled the pandemic and equips new information that reinforces his argument that the government is bypassing its responsibility. However, the campaign has stayed away from elements that are based on gossip and animate Mr. Trump’s opponents on social media. Books such as those written by Mr. Trump’s niece, Mary Trump, and Mr. Cohen’s account of his time with the President seldom found their way into Mr. Biden’s campaign messages.
Presidential opposition: Unlike Clinton, who faced the possibility of Trump becoming president, Mr. Biden is dealing with reality. And as the scandals continue in his administration, Democrats believe voters who were willing to seize Mr. Trump’s opportunity to take office are now ready to step in. This is another element of how Biden’s campaign seeks to use Trump’s words against him, arguing that Biden will bring calm and stability to the White House, despite the headlines.
Both campaigns agree: Midwest is the best
With both candidates in Michigan this week, and top deputies, including Donald Trump Jr. and Jill Biden in Minnesota, the trip was a sign of how much attention both campaigns are giving to the Midwest. Intense interest in Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania has overshadowed other areas. There are many ways to get 270 ballots, but that’s why Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden believe this campaign will win the country’s industrial center.
White working class: Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are both figures who have provoked their call to have a particular relationship with white working-class voters, a demographic that was not enthusiastic about Mrs. Clinton’s candidacy. Mr Biden’s advisers believe that this is a population whose candidate is best prepared to succeed, and states with industrial backgrounds such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are a good way to test this appeal.
Black voters: There are more Latino voters in the general election, but Democrats and Republicans have spent more time focusing on Black voters in this election than any other minority group. Biden has relied on his personal relationship with former President Barack Obama, and Republicans have branded Democrats irresponsible administrators of black bourgeois communities. Above other battle states such as Florida or the West, industrialized states have Black Attendance cities that could define all states. These include places like Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Cleveland.
Mr Biden’s campaign does not extend the map: Early in the race, some Democrats begged the Biden campaign to expand the traditional battle map and invest in states like Texas and Georgia that had demographic shifts favorable to Democrats. However, if the candidate’s itinerary is any indication, the campaign focuses efforts on traditional battlefields – for now. Biden’s campaign just announced another Midwest trip to Minnesota next week. It shows the willingness to defend the states that Mrs. Clinton won in 2016 due to the expansion of the map to new states that have long proven foolish gold for the party.